Housing Prices, Illegal Immigration, and the 30% Stat Lie || 1794

Episode notes

The viral claim says illegal immigration caused home prices to rise 30%. The Fed paper said something different, and the difference matters. A new working paper on unauthorized immigration and housing prices is being used across social media to argue that Biden's illegal immigration surge caused a 30% rise in home prices and 20% rise in rents.

But the actual claim was about 30% of home price growth in the average metro area studied, not a direct 30% increase caused by immigration. This matters because supply and demand are real. Adding millions of people to a housing market with restricted supply raises prices. But zoning laws, permitting delays, rent control, building codes, high interest rates, federal debt, and monetary policy all matter too.

Austin gives a real-world example of what happens when a city makes it easier to build: rents can fall. The housing crisis is not solved by pretending immigration has no effect, and it is not solved by pretending immigration is the whole story.